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Zimbabwe: 100 Days Plus
AfricaFocus Bulletin
May 20, 2009 (090520)
(Reposted from sources cited below)
Editor's Note
"We all knew this was going to be a fragile, tenuous, very uneasy
relationship but one where the MDC had little option. Having said
that, it was also very clear from the beginning that this kind of
arrangement was going to be a battle for the State between the two
parties from its inception and indeed that's what it's turned out
to be ... But I think we've also seen a kind of new hope that
emerged in the 100 days, a sense that something else was possible
and the beginning of, at least the first steps of accountability of
the ruling party." - Brian Raftopoulos on SW Radio Africa
This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains excerpts from an interview by
Violet Gonda with Zimbabwean analysts Raftopoulos and Alex Magaisa,
reflecting on the first 100 days of the unity government in
Zimbabwe, passed earlier this month. Results continued ambiguous
this week, as the MDC headed by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai
formally appealed to the African Union and the Southern African
Development Community to intervene to resolve remaining roadblocks
to implementation of the Global Political Agreement.
Reports of recent developments include
Richard Kamidza summarizes the impasse (May 14, 2009)
http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/comment/56257
"International relations move from freezer to fridge" (May 18, 2009)
http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=84436
Resolutions of 2nd National Council Meeting of MDC-T (May 17, 2009)
http://www.sokwanele.com/thisiszimbabwe/archives/4141
Status of freedom of expression - report (May 19, 2009)
ZIG (Zimbabwe Inclusive Government) Watch
http://www.sokwanele.com/articles/zigfocus_19_1d_e_190509.html
MDC pressing for SADC, AU intervention despite ZANU-PF Objections (May 19, 2009)
http://www.swradioafrica.com/news190509/mdctopress190509.htm
"Zimbabwe Law Society holds first protest free from police violence" (May 20, 2009)
- "At one level things have changed. At another, everything is the same"
http://www.zwnews.com/issuefull.cfm?ArticleID=20852
For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on Zimbabwe, and additional
references, see http://www.africafocus.org/country/zimbabwe.php
For the most recent news coverage see also
http://www.swradioafrica.com
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Update on New Books Issue
For additional books suggested by readers, see
http://www.africafocus.org/docs09/nb0905.php#add
++++++++++++++++++++++end editor's note+++++++++++++++++++++++
Zimbabwe: Reflections on Tsvangirai's First 100 Days
Violet Gonda
SW Radio Africa (London)
8 May 2009
[excerpts. Full transcript available at
http://allafrica.com/stories/200905130131.html or
http://www.swradioafrica.com/pages/hotseat120509.htm]
VIOLET GONDA: On 11 February Morgan Tsvangirai was sworn in as the
country's Prime Minister marking the beginning of an extraordinary
new government which brought bitter enemies together in an uneasy
coalition. The Prime Minister and his MDC would have been in
government for 100 days on the 11th of May. This week on the Hot
Seat programme political analysts Professor Brian Raftopoulos and
Dr Alex Magaisa give us an analysis on the last 100 days.
Let me start with Alex, the PM said on the day of his inauguration
and I quote: 'For too long, our people's hopes for a bright and
prosperous future have been betrayed. Instead of hope, their days
have been filled with starvation, disease and fear. A culture of
entitlement and impunity has brought our nation to the brink of a
dark abyss. This must end today.' Now Alex, 100 days down the line,
what changes have you seen since this statement was made?
ALEX MAGAISA: Well Violet, first of all ... we have to appreciate
that it has been tainted very much so by the tragedies that has
affected the Prime Minister Mr Tsvangirai.
Firstly the loss of his wife and secondly the loss of his grandson,
so if anything this is the biggest highlight of what has happened
in the last 100 days although it's a negative highlight. So
everything we say and everything that we discuss will have to have
that caveat.
What you cannot doubt about Mr Tsvangirai over the last 100 days is
that he has shown the will, commitment and a genuine interest in
furthering the national interest. In fact in many ways I think he
has given way too much in order to make sure that things work but
he is dealing with people who have enjoyed power for too long and
people who are finding it very difficult to give up the old ways.
So in terms of the achievements - I'm sure we will be touching on
a number of things - there have been a lot of challenges, there's
no doubt about that but I've always been one of those people who
have felt that Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC didn't have much of a
choice in March and did what they had to do to join this inclusive
government because they were genuine in their interest to make
things work for Zimbabwe. And I still see it as a process rather
than as an event and what we have seen in the last 100 days is part
of that process and no doubt there have been huge challenges.
GONDA: Let me go to Professor Raftopoulos and perhaps he can give
us some tangible examples and also to go back to what Mr Tsvangirai
said on the day of his inauguration, he said: "To achieve this
vision the new government must implement the democratisation
process without delay."
...
BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS: Yah I just want to reiterate what Alex has said
in that I think we all knew this was going to be a fragile,
tenuous, very uneasy relationship but one where the MDC had little
option. Having said that, it was also very clear from the beginning
that this kind of arrangement was going to be a battle for the
State between the two parties from its inception and indeed that's
what it's turned out to be the battle over the ministries, the
battle over what portfolios fall under particular ministries, the
continued detention of abductees and the sense of continued
obstructive behaviour of the more retrogressive elements of the
security wing of Zanu-PF.
But I think we've also seen a kind of new hope that emerged in the
100 days, a sense that something else was possible and the
beginning of, at least the first steps of accountability of the
ruling party, within parliamentary discussions, over discussions on
the Reserve Bank, the discussions that are taking place around the
media and of course the very controversial discussions that are
taking place around the constitution.
These are difficult processes but they are also processes that open
up new possibilities as well as hold a danger of a relapse if
things begin to fall apart. So I think it is early days but there
have been both pros and cons. I think there are still enormous
challenges ahead and I think that the MDC certainly still has to
assert its strength within the State, within the government, to
demand more of Zanu-PF and to be able to create more spaces for
democratic practise.
GONDA: Alex, let me come back to you. He did set out what many have
described as a very ambitious agenda you know the issue of the
civil servants remuneration, detainees' release, engaging with the
international community so in your view which of these issues has
he gotten the most success?
MAGAISA: Well sometimes politicians, their business is to make
promises and to try and fulfil those promises and not every promise
is always fulfilled. What we have seen with the new inclusive
government is that Mr Tsvangirai did promise that there would be
some changes in the way that the civil servants would be
remunerated and I don't think that you can go to any civil servant
today who does not appreciate the fact that they are getting at
least that 100 US dollars which they could only dream of last year
this time.
So in terms of fire-fighting I would say re-stabilisation of the
economy, we can't say it is stable but in terms of the
fire-fighting role that the government has, I would give them 8 out
of 10 for that because it has really stopped the downward slide
that the country was going through for the past ten years or so
which was becoming accelerated by the day. In terms of growth of
course, it's no more than 2 out of 10 there because we haven't seen
anything tangible to say that the economy can actually grow in any
big way, mainly because the government does not have sufficient
cash resources to make these things work.
And that's where I want to point out one of the achievements in
fact of this government in the last 100 days, is the re-engagement
with the international community. When you see Minister of Finance
Biti going to Washington, talking to the administration, the US
administration, Congress, the IMF, World Bank, coming to the UK to
speak to the British government these are things that Zanu-PF has
not been able to do for the past ten years or so. So, it is the
first step in trying to rebuild that relationship, but we know, as
everybody does, that it's not going to work unless Zimbabwe itself
also reforms politically because it's always going to be a
condition upon which that engagement is going to be predicated.
GONDA: Still on that issue of re-engagement with the international
community Alex, at the stage we are at, what would be better for
Zimbabwe right now, humanitarian aid or developmental aid, and is
humanitarian aid necessarily a good thing?
MAGAISA: Well, humanitarian aid is there as an act of necessity.
You've got people who are starving, you've got people who cannot
have things otherwise and therefore you need to assist them. ... I
don't believe that humanitarian aid on its own is the panacea to
Zimbabwe and I think there's got to step up, there's got to be some
belief in Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC is now in government and try
and help them to see if they can actually catch the fish by
themselves.
GONDA: Is that possible Brian, and also what do you think about the
international response to the call by the inclusive government to
support the GNU, despite the fact that there are still some 'toxic
issues'?
RAFTOPOULOS: I think that the need for assistance is absolutely
essential. I think that the international community have very
quickly to come to a more decisive position. The humanitarian plus
position is just a holding operation. Certainly the humanitarian
assistance is necessary but there's a very strong need now for more
substantive developmental assistance and I think therefore that the
call by the MDC government is indicative that they realise without
some very strong support on the economic front this GPA will die.
...
So in a sense while one understands the concerns of the
international community around the continued issues that they would
like to see addressed, I think waiting for all those issues to be
addressed is very problematic and I think it's likely to produce
more deleterious results than they might possibly imagine. I think
they are going to have to take some more imaginative and some more
risky steps in producing more development assistance because the
future of opposition politics and democratic politics depends on
some kind of sustainability and stabilisation of the economy.
GONDA: Some will say isn't that what the Mugabe regime would
actually want you know international help to come in and then
they just revert to the same old ways?
RAFTOPOULOS: Of course it's a danger but to me the biggest danger
is to allow the situation to continue to deteriorate or after this
initial beginning of stabilisation to then starve the economy of
future assistance - that's more likely in my view to threaten the
democratic forces than it is Zanu-PF. So I think it is a calculated
risk but one that must be made on the basis of what are the balance
of forces in the country and who is likely to gain from a greater
stabilisation, a greater sense of security amongst the working
people of this country and with that, the capacity to fight for
more status within a more stable economy.
GONDA: What about on the issue of the civil servants as Alex has
been talking about, does the teachers' threat of strike tarnish
Morgan Tsvangirai's early victory for example, of being able to pay
the civil servants 100 US dollars per month?
RAFTOPOULOS: Yah certainly I think any major public sector strike
will threaten a new arrangement like this, which sends us back to
the point of what kind of assistance needs to be given now to
stabilise, to re-professionalise the civil service and to the get
the basic social services, particularly health and education going,
so that that kind of culture of growth, of social net is seen to be
viable both for the parents of those children and for the teachers.
GONDA: What kind of assistance do you think would be needed
actually?
RAFTOPOULOS: Well I think first of all, what you see in this
country is real massive unemployment and a real breakdown of the
production structures and at the heart of re-growing this economy
therefore is redeveloping the productive structures. In industry,
the mines and of course on the land and therefore not just giving
assistance on the necessary humanitarian side but also beginning to
see how to redevelop the productive sectors of the economy. Out of
which any future sustainability of state expenditure will also be
based. And I think that aspect of the current situation is what is
most urgently needed now of course in addition to the humanitarian
assistance.
GONDA: Alex, what are your thoughts on that and also does the MDC
in particular have the power to drive its reform programme without
losing political capital, doing public relations or rather covering
up and defending the Zanu-PF rule?
MAGAISA: Well you have to appreciate that one of the risks of this
political arrangement is that it's always short term in the way
that things are designed in the sense that there are elections that
are to be held at some point, we don't exactly know when and so
each of the parties is going to have to do things, and manoeuvre,
try and out-manoeuvre the other party - and so that is why I called
the inclusive government more of a fire-fighting perhaps a
restabilising agent more than anything else. ...
In terms of development assistance, I mean as Brian has rightly
said, definitely we do know that this government will fail unless
there is some resources available to it. While of course it is
important to get that external assistance I would also challenge
the government to try and look inward as well. We are a poor
country in terms of the resources that we need as of now but we do
have immense natural resources in the country and enough potential
to try and regenerate. We don't want to get to this point next year
still begging for money without planning for it. We need to be
working on things like agriculture, try and stop these things which
are causing disruption on the farms, try and see how the
parastatals like Zisco Steel, Hwange and many others which can be
productive and bring in foreign currency into the country. ...
GONDA: Right, Mr Tsvangirai famously said at his inauguration that,
and I quote: "It hurts that as we celebrate here today, there are
some who are in prison. I can assure you that they are not going to
remain in those dungeons any day or any week longer." Now Alex,
what does the bail debacle really reveal about the MDC's power or
leverage?
MAGAISA: Well I think it simply shows us that there are many
retrogressive elements within the elements of the old regime and
who are refusing obviously to accept that change has come and that
things have got to be done differently which is why if I was to
give a mark on the rule of law I think it's no more than two per
cent - which is essentially a nominal mark because the attitude has
not changed, the personnel have not changed, the security of
individuals is not guaranteed and you've got some very big people,
people who are closer to Mr Tsvangirai like his security advisor,
like his former personal aide Gandhi Mudzingwa, Chris Dhlamini and
journalist like Manyere. These are people who continue to suffer
under the old rules and we see that there's no change in attitude
and we saw this week as well with Mukoko and others who were
re-arrested or re-detained rather in a case which was quite
ridiculous.
But you can see that the MDC is obviously having problems because
it doesn't have control of the military or the security structures
of the State which Zanu-PF has steadfastly held on to. And also I
think there is one aspect which is the judiciary itself. There are
some good people there in the judiciary who have to be commended
but there are also elements which will continue to refuse to change
and I think that one of the things that the MDC or indeed the new
government needs to do is to try and carry out some judiciary
reforms. ...
GONDA: Brian the detainees were freed, well some of them, but they
all still face charges of trying to overthrow the regime. Is it
being unrealistic to say the charges against the political
detainees should be dropped in the spirit of the inclusive
government?
RAFTOPOULOS: No I don't think it is being unrealistic. I think this
should be dealt with politically. I think that these detainees
should all be freed. I think it's a real problem, it's a real
obstacle and clearly being engineered by those elements of the
security that have been behind the violence for a long time. I
think that this is clearly an indication of the continued role of
this very regressive element in trying to break this agreement and
that continued efforts must be made both by the MDC but also by the
civic, the generality of the civic to have all the detainees
released unconditionally. ...
GONDA: Now Alex, it has been said in this discussion that the issue
of the detainees should be dealt with politically and we understand
that Jestina Mukoko and others were actually granted bail after the
Principals intervened. Now, is it the job though of politicians to
intervene in legal matters on the other hand?
MAGAISA: Well, absolutely no, that shouldn't be the case, but I
think we have to understand the case in the context that it's
actually a political case. These cases we are seeing now, and I
think Brian probably has a better account of the history than I do,
we have seen these things before. I was a young boy in the 1980s
when people like Dumiso Dabengwa, Lookout Masuku and many other
people were kept in jail on precisely the same kind of charges and
then later on they became ministers in the government. You had
Ndabaningi Sithole in the late '90s being accused of the same and
I believe that these are accusations that have been put up from
time to time. Even Mr Tsvangirai himself was accused of trying to
do the same thing.
So your correspondent, the guy who wrote the email is absolutely
right, it makes no sense that you can charge these people trying to
topple the government and yet the people who are supposed to be the
beneficiaries of those activities are the same persons who are now
in government. In all normal cases, even we saw that in the
transition from apartheid in South Africa, the issue of the release
of political detainees is always top of the list because you know
that these are political charges, these are political offences they
are being charged with and you try and deal with that at a
political level. ...
GONDA: And what about the issue of Roy Bennett's appointment as
Deputy Minister of Agriculture where Robert Mugabe is refusing to
swear him in, is this not a sign that Mugabe is still caught up in
the racial mode?
MAGAISA: Well in a way I think that it's pretty much obvious that
it's more than the fact that Roy Bennett is facing charges because
there are many other people in government, including indeed the
Minister of Finance and the Deputy Prime Minister who are still
facing some charges, I believe so. So the issue is not about Roy
Bennett being before the courts of law. I think the issue has more
to do with Mr Bennett's race as well as the sensitive issue of him
being a former commercial farmer, now being given the position to
lead the Ministry of Agriculture.
I think if they were being honest I think they would tell us that
that is the case. I don't think that it is for Mr Mugabe to
determine for the MDC whom it wishes to get nominated if indeed the
idea was that the MDC would nominate its own ministers then it was
up to them to do so and this is what they have done and I think
that there is nothing reasonable at all about what is happening at
the moment.
GONDA: Brian what are the implications of Mugabe refusing to
swear Bennett in and also do you think that Tsvangirai should
perhaps relent and look for someone else for this position?
RAFTOPOULOS: No I think that for the moment Morgan is and will
stand his ground. I think I agree entirely with Alex' analysis,
Mugabe continues to view the MDC and elements of it through kind of
racialised spectacles and therefore it is entirely to do with
issues of race, on issues of him being a former commercial farmer,
the issue that having him as a Deputy Minister on what is one of
the central pillars of Zanu's legitimising ideologies which is the
land question. But I think certainly the MDC should remain firm on
all its demands. And I think also the MDCs must work much closer
together, both formations, they have to take much stronger unity
position around these principled issues which they have done up to
now and should do so in an even stronger way and to remember what
the common enemy is, especially in this transition period.
...
GONDA: I was actually going to ask you about the constitutional
reform issue and the question is given the difference of approach,
what must the MDC watch out for in dealing with the constitutional
rewriting process?
RAFTOPOULOS: Well I think certainly there has to be greater effort
in trying to bridge the gap between the position of some of the
civics like the NCA, ZTCU and ZINASU and the current process
underway. There's clearly a huge gulf that exists and I think that
there needs to be much more effort put into trying to rebuild that
process. The real danger is if this process continues and you get
these kind of divisions within the broad democratic movement, it
only plays into the hands of the regressive aspects of Zanu-PF and
if the worse happens and you get another NO vote, I think that can
only hurt the democratic movement in this current context.
GONDA: Alex, what are your thoughts on the constitutional reform
issue and are civil society's claims valid that they want a
people-driven process?
MAGAISA: I think you have to acknowledge that the MDC and civil
society have been in the trenches together trying to achieve
basically in effect the same goals, good governance which is
predicated on a democratically created constitution and so forth.
What I think the MDC need to be more aware of, is that when you get
into power, you begin to see things in a different way, you begin
to approach things in a different way. I think that it is important
that they remain true to their ways and understand the views of
their former colleagues in civil society.
We may use all sorts of arguments and say they were not elected and
so forth but they were in the trenches together, they were partners
and I don't think that should change at any point in relation to
the constitution-making process. So if I were part of the MDC in
terms of the cabinet and so forth, the decision makers, my view
would be let's do things differently, let's open up to hear what
Lovemore Madhuku and other people are saying and sometimes you've
got to swallow your pride and humble yourself and accept that there
are some things that you may have done wrong. You don't lose points
for it; in fact you gain points for it. That would be my view.
But also in relation to parliament, I think this is one body which
has been underused over the past 100 years. What we know is what it
only did really was to endorse the Constitutional Amendment No 19
and the National Security legislation. Beyond that we haven't seen
anything tangible that has come out of parliament in terms of
changing some of the elements of the legal architecture in
Zimbabwe. We know for example the media laws, the security laws and
many other things that we continue to point out in our analyses
that need to be changed and I think that parliament should be busy
on those things to try and show exactly what they are doing.
GONDA: On the issue of the constitution, how is the current process
by the government not people-driven?
MAGAISA: Well you have to appreciate Violet that this is a
committee which is constituted by three political parties, Zanu-PF
and the two MDCs but there's more to Zimbabwe than those three
political parties and it's not just about politics.
Constitution-making yes it's an issue of power, it's an issue of
politics, but you also have to include various other people who may
not be represented in parliament and so for that reason it's quite
short term.
But you also have to understand that the balancing act between the
MDCs and Zanu-PF has always been about trying to secure the best
compromise between them and so there's a real danger that whatever
comes up in the end would be something to try and accommodate those
three political entities and individuals within them compared to a
more broad based and national constitution. And I have to say this
Violet, that in many cases these guys may actually do the right
thing, this committee may come up with the most beautiful
constitution but as we say with justice sometimes you must not only
be producing the right thing, but you must be seen to be doing the
right thing in that process. I think the process is definitely
important in coming up with that product.
...
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