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Africa/Global: Climate Change Summary Report
AfricaFocus Bulletin
November 11, 2014 (141111)
(Reposted from sources cited below)
Editor's Note
"The world's top scientists and governments have issued
their bluntest plea yet to the world: Slash carbon pollution
now (at a very low cost) or risk 'severe, pervasive and
irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.' Scientists
have 'high confidence' these devastating impacts occur 'even
with adaptation' -- if we keep doing little or nothing." -
Joe Romm, Editor, Climate Progress
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/) has now issued its 5th assessment
synthesis report, with devastating conclusions from a
process designed to produce the "least common denominator"
of scientific consensus.
Even the "Approved Summary for Policymakers" runs to 40
pages, and, while authoritative, is not an easy read for the
non-specialist. But the conclusions are of life-and-death
significance for all of us to understand. The devastating
impacts of climate change, disproportionately on those who
are already most vulnerable, are already real, will be
getting worse, and without significant action will become
irreversible.
This AfricaFocus Bulletin, not sent out by email but
available on the web at http://www.africafocus.org/docs14/cc1411a.php, contains two
short summaries in accessible language by Joe Romm, editor
of the Climate Progress blog and by Martin Khor, the
executive director of the South Centre.
It also contains a "summary of the summary," that is,
highlighted points in the original wording, extracted from
the 40-page Approved Summary for Policymakers.
Another AfricaFocus sent out today by email, and available
on the web at http://www.africafocus.org/docs14/cc1411b.php,
highlights recent developments in the fast-growing fossilfuel
divestment movement aimed at countering the dominance
of the fossil-fuel energy and its destructive effects on the
planet.
For talking points and previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on the
environment and climate change, visit http://www.africafocus.org/intro-env.php
++++++++++++++++++++++end editor's note+++++++++++++++++
World's Scientists Warn: We Have 'High Confidence' In The
'Irreversible Impacts' Of Climate Inaction
by Joe Romm, November 2, 2014
http://thinkprogress.org/climate / direct URL:
http://tinyurl.com/oltueem
The world's top scientists and governments have issued their
bluntest plea yet to the world: Slash carbon pollution now
(at a very low cost) or risk "severe, pervasive and
irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems." Scientists
have "high confidence" these devastating impacts occur "even
with adaptation" -- if we keep doing little or nothing.
On Sunday, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) released the "synthesis" report of their fifth
full scientific climate assessment since 1990. More than 100
governments have signed off line by line on this review of
more than 30,000 studies on climate science, impacts, and
solutions.
Like every recent IPCC report, it is cautious to a fault --
as you would expect from "its consensus structure, which
tends to produce a lowest common denominator on which a
large number of scientists can agree," as one climatologist
explained to the New York Times. And that "lowest common
denominator" is brought to an even blander and lower level
in the summary reports since they need to end up with
language that satisfies every member government.
The authors clearly understand this is the last time they
have a serious shot at influencing the world's major
governments while we still have a plausible chance of
stabilizing at non-catastrophic levels. IPCC chairman
Rajendra Pachauri said this report will "provide the roadmap
by which policymakers will hopefully find their way to a
global agreement to finally reverse course on climate
change." That global agreement is supposed to be achieved
over the next year and finalized at the December 2015
international climate talks in Paris.
And yet, as conservative as the process is, this final
synthesis is still incredibly alarming -- while at the same
time it is terrifically hopeful.
How hopeful? The world's top scientists and governments make
clear for the umpteenth time that the cost of action is
relatively trivial: "Mitigation scenarios that are likely to
limit warming to below 2 degrees C" entail "an annualized
reduction of consumption growth by 0.04 to 0.14 (median:
0.06) percentage points over the century relative to
annualized consumption growth in the baseline that is
between 1.6 percent and 3 percent per year (high
confidence)."
Translation: The cost of even the most aggressive action --
the kind needed to stave off irreversible disaster -- is so
low that it would not noticeably change the growth curve of
the world economy this century. With high confidence, we
would be reducing annual consumption growth from, say, 2.4
percent per year down to "only" a growth level of 2.34
percent per year.
How bad can it get if we won't devote that tiny fraction of
the world's wealth to action? The IPCC already explained
that in the science report from last fall (see "Alarming
IPCC Prognosis: 9 degrees F Warming For U.S., Faster Sea
Rise, More Extreme Weather, Permafrost Collapse"). And they
expanded on that in the impacts report (see "Climate Panel
Warns World Faces 'Breakdown Of Food Systems' And More
Violent Conflict").
The synthesis report ties it all together:
In most scenarios without additional mitigation efforts ...
warming is more likely than not to exceed 4 degrees C [7
degrees F] above pre-industrial levels by 2100. The risks
associated with temperatures at or above 4 degrees C include
substantial species extinction, global and regional food
insecurity, consequential constraints on common human
activities, and limited potential for adaptation in some
cases (high confidence).
Translation: There is high confidence that if we keep doing
little or nothing [the RCP8.5 case], we will create a postapocalyptic
"hunger games" world beyond adaptation.
Ever cautious, the IPCC euphemistically writes of
"consequential constraints on common human activities."
Elsewhere they explain that "by 2100 for RCP8.5, the
combination of high temperature and humidity in some areas
for parts of the year is expected to compromise common human
activities, including growing food and working outdoors
(high confidence)."
Translation: We are at risk of making large parts of the
planet's currently arable and populated land virtually
uninhabitable for much of the year -- and irreversibly so
for hundreds of years.
Indeed, the report makes clear that future generations can't
plausibly undo whatever we are too greedy and shortsighted
to prevent through immediate action. And as bad as the
impacts described in this report are, things will be even
worse after 2100 in every case but the one where we
aggressively act ASAP to stabilize at 2 degrees C total
warming.
And remember, this is a super-cautious, consensus-based,
"lowest common denominator" report. The Washington Post has
an excellent piece on the inherently conservative nature of
these reports and why they "often underestimate the severity
of global warming."
So things are probably going to be much, much worse for our
children and grandchildren and future generations if we fail
to act. Do we really want to find out just how much worse
things could be?
Comment on IPCC's Final Climate Report
By Martin Khor
[Martin Khor is the Executive Director of the South Centre.
Contact: director@southcentre.int]
http://www.southcentre.int/category/publications/southviews/
The IPCC's final report, known as the Synthesis Report,
indicates the world is doomed if present climate and
emission trends continue, but the key solutions are as
elusive as before.
Imagine our world getting more and more polluted, and little
space left for the Earth to absorb more pollutants before
all kinds of disasters take place.
And imagine that we have not yet found the solutions to
really slow down the emissions or to prevent the catastrophe
that lies ahead.
This look into our scary future was evident at the recent
meeting in Copenhagen to finalise the last climate change
report of the IPCC (inter-governmental panel on climate
change).
The IPCC produces the most comprehensive reports on the
state of climate change. Over a thousand scientists came
together to produce three huge reports on science,
adaptation and mitigation.
And then a synthesis report was finalised at the Copenhagen
meeting, with hundreds of government representatives going
over, debating and finally approving a "summary for
policymakers" (SPM) together with the authors.
The synthesis report and its SPM make very interesting
reading. You can find information on the damage that climate
change has already caused, and the many more harms that lie
ahead.
But the most interesting scientific picture is found between
the lines. The report reveals that between 1750 and 2011,
cumulative anthropogenic (human-induced) carbon dioxide
emissions to the atmosphere were 2,040 giga tonnes (one giga
tonne, or Gton, equals a billion tonnes).
About 40% of these emissions, or 880 Gton of CO2, have
remained in the atmosphere. The rest was stored on land (in
plants and soils) and in the ocean. The ocean has absorbed
about 30% of the CO2, causing acidification of the seas.
Emissions have continued to increase in recent decades,
reaching a 2010 level of around 49 Gton of CO2 equivalent.
Total CO2 emissions since 1870 have to remain below about
2900 Gton, if global warming is to be kept at less than 2
degrees C (relative to the period 1861-1880) with a
probability of over 66%. However, about 1,900 Gton of CO2
has already been emitted by 2011.
From the above figures in the IPCC synthesis report, you can
do the simple maths, and it's frightening.
If total emissions since 1870 till now and the future have
to be kept at 2,900 Gton, and 1,900 Gton have already been
emitted, then there is "space" for only 1,000 Gton of CO2 to
be emitted from now to the future.
But the IPCC report also says that in 2011, the emission
level was 49 Gton of CO2 equivalent.
Thus, in 20 to 25 years, if the current rate of emissions
continues, the ability of the Earth to absorb the gases
(within the limit of keeping warming below 2 degrees C)
would have been exhausted.
Even at this scenario of 2 degrees warming there would be
widespread and serious damage, with a rise of extreme
weather events. With more warming, say 3 degrees C, it would
be catastrophic.
While the IPCC synthesis report is rich in scientific data
and with scenarios drawn from computer models, it is
unfortunately very thin on how to achieve the global
solutions.
It does assess the technologies and physical changes needed
to reduce emissions in various sectors. It also gives
estimates of the economic costs needed to make mitigation
work.
But it is shy about even hinting at the kind of global deal
that is needed to get both developed and developing
countries to seriously take actions.
At the negotiations in the United Nations climate
convention, the developing countries have long made the
point that they require funding and technology to support
policies that shift their economic growth towards
environmentally sustainable pathways.
The climate-related actions they take should blend with
their continued development, and not be at the expense of
development.
The synthesis report hardly deals with the key issues of
finance and technology for developing countries. Indeed,
there were attempts by some developed countries to even
strike out the term "technology transfer" from the report's
summary. It took quite a battle by several developing
countries to re-insert that term.
The North-South tangle was most evident in a working group
to draw up a box in the report on the key relevant messages
to be transmitted by the IPCC to the climate convention and
its negotiators.
The draft by the IPCC authors was filled with data and
required mitigation pathways, but developing countries'
delegates complained that there was almost total absence of
any mention on sustainable development, finance, technology
and adaptation.
After days of discussion, the scientists finally agreed to
include a paragraph on sustainable development and a few
lines mentioning financing, technology transfer and
adaptation.
However, when the new draft was brought to the plenary,
whose closing had to be postponed for a full day, it was
rejected by several developed countries.
Thus, the IPCC's final report is missing on what was to have
been its most important message –ndash; the box on IPCC's relevant
findings for the climate convention.
My conclusion is that the science of climate change has made
progress in showing why we have to act, but that getting
action agreed to as a community of nations and people is
still a long way off.
The next conference of the climate convention will be in
Peru at the end of this month. Hopefully, some progress will
be made there on the much-needed action.
Climate Change 2014
Synthesis Report
Approved Summary for Policymakers 1 November 2014
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Note: The text below contains highlighted extracts only from the original 40-page Approved Summary,
which is available at the link above.
Introduction
This Synthesis Report is based on the reports of the three
Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), including relevant Special Reports. It
provides an integrated view of climate change as the final
part of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
This summary follows the structure of the longer report,
which addresses the following topics: Observed changes and
their causes; Future climate change, risks and impacts;
Future pathways for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable
development; Adaptation and mitigation.
In the Synthesis Report, the certainty in key assessment
findings is communicated as in the Working Group Reports and
Special Reports. It is based on the author teams'
evaluations of underlying scientific understanding and is
expressed as a qualitative level of confidence (from very
low to very high) and, when possible, probabilistically with
a quantified likelihood (from exceptionally unlikely to
virtually certain)1. Where appropriate, findings are also
formulated as statements of fact without using uncertainty
qualifiers.
1. Observed Changes and their Causes
Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest
in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread
impacts on human and natural systems. {1}
1.1 Observed changes in the climate system
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the
1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over
decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed,
the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level
has risen. {1.1}
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer
at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
The period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year
period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere,
where such assessment is possible (medium confidence). ...
1.2 Causes of climate change
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since
the pre-industrial era, driven largely by economic and
population growth, and are now higher than ever. This has
led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane
and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the
last 800,000 years. Their effects, together with those of
other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout
the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the
dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th
century. {1.2, 1.3.1}
1.3 Impacts of climate change
In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on
natural and human systems on all continents and across the
oceans. Impacts are due to observed climate change,
irrespective of its cause, indicating the sensitivity of
natural and human systems to changing climate. {1.3.2}
Evidence of observed climate-change impacts is strongest and
most comprehensive for natural systems. In many regions,
changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering
hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of
quantity and quality (medium confidence). Many terrestrial,
freshwater, and marine species have shifted their geographic
ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances,
and species interactions in response to ongoing climate
change (high confidence). Some impacts on human systems have
also been attributed to climate change, with a major or
minor contribution of climate change distinguishable from
other influences (Figure SPM.4). Assessment of many studies
covering a wide range of regions and crops shows that
negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been
more common than positive impacts (high confidence). Some
impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms have been
attributed to human influence (medium confidence). {1.3.2}
1.4. Extreme events
Changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been
observed since about 1950. Some of these changes have been
linked to human influences, including a decrease in cold
temperature extremes, an increase in warm temperature
extremes, an increase in extreme high sea levels and an
increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a
number of regions. {1.4}
It is very likely that the number of cold days and nights
has decreased and the number of warm days and nights has
increased on the global scale. It is likely that the
frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of
Europe, Asia and Australia. It is very likely that human
influence has contributed to the observed global scale
changes in the frequency and intensity of daily temperature
extremes since the mid-20th century. It is likely that human
influence has more than doubled the probability of
occurrence of heat waves in some locations. There is medium
confidence that the observed warming has increased heatrelated
human mortality and decreased cold-related human
mortality in some regions. {1.4}
There are likely more land regions where the number of heavy
precipitation events has increased than where it has
decreased. Recent detection of increasing trends in extreme
precipitation and discharge in some catchments imply greater
risks of flooding at regional scale (medium confidence). It
is likely that extreme sea levels (for example, as
experienced in storm surges) have increased since 1970,
being mainly a result of rising mean sea level. {1.4}
Impacts from recent climate-related extremes, such as heat
waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, reveal
significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems
and many human systems to current climate variability (very
high confidence). {1.4}
2. Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts
Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further
warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the
climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe,
pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and
ecosystems. Limiting climate change would require
substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate
change risks. {2}
2.1 Key drivers of future climate
Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean
surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.
Projections of greenhouse gas emissions vary over a wide
range, depending on both socio-economic development and
climate policy. {2.1}
2.2 Projected changes in the climate system
Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st
century under all assessed emission scenarios. It is very
likely that heat waves will occur more often and last
longer, and that extreme precipitation events will become
more intense and frequent in many regions. The ocean will
continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level to
rise. {2.2}
2.3 Future risks and impacts caused by a changing climate
Climate change will amplify existing risks and create new
risks for natural and human systems. Risks are unevenly
distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged
people and communities in countries at all levels of
development. {2.3}
Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction
of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and
trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and
natural systems, including their ability to adapt. Rising
rates and magnitudes of warming and other changes in the
climate system, accompanied by ocean acidification, increase
the risk of severe, pervasive, and in some cases
irreversible detrimental impacts. Some risks are
particularly relevant for individual regions (Figure SPM.8),
while others are global. The overall risks of future climate
change impacts can be reduced by limiting the rate and
magnitude of climate change, including ocean acidification.
The precise levels of climate change sufficient to trigger
abrupt and irreversible change remain uncertain, but the
risk associated with crossing such thresholds increases with
rising temperature (medium confidence). For risk assessment,
it is important to evaluate the widest possible range of
impacts, including low-probability outcomes with large
consequences. {1.5, 2.3, 2.4, 3.3, Box Introduction 1, Box
2.3, Box 2.4}
...
Climate change is projected to undermine food security
(Figure SPM.9). Due to projected climate change by the
mid-21st century and beyond, global marine species
redistribution and marine biodiversity reduction in
sensitive regions will challenge the sustained provision of
fisheries productivity and other ecosystem services (high
confidence). For wheat, rice, and maize in tropical and
temperate regions, climate change without adaptation is
projected to negatively impact production for local
temperature increases of 2 degrees C or more above late-20th
century levels, although individual locations may benefit
(medium confidence). Global temperature increases of ~4
degrees C or more14 above late-20th century levels, combined
with increasing food demand, would pose large risks to food
security globally (high confidence). Climate change is
projected to reduce renewable surface water and groundwater
resources in most dry subtropical regions (robust evidence,
high agreement), intensifying competition for water among
sectors (limited evidence, medium agreement). {2.3.1, 2.3.2}
2.4 Climate change beyond 2100, irreversibility and abrupt
changes
Many aspects of climate change and associated impacts will
continue for centuries, even if anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases are stopped. The risks of abrupt or
irreversible changes increase as the magnitude of the
warming increases. {2.4}
3. Future Pathways for Adaptation, Mitigation and
Sustainable Development
Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies for
reducing and managing the risks of climate change.
Substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades
can reduce climate risks in the 21st century and beyond,
increase prospects for effective adaptation, reduce the
costs and challenges of mitigation in the longer term, and
contribute to climate-resilient pathways for sustainable
development. {3.2, 3.3, 3.4}
3.1 Foundations of decision-making about climate change
Effective decision making to limit climate change and its
effects can be informed by a wide range of analytical
approaches for evaluating expected risks and benefits,
recognizing the importance of governance, ethical
dimensions, equity, value judgments, economic assessments
and diverse perceptions and responses to risk and
uncertainty. {3.1}
Sustainable development and equity provide a basis for
assessing climate policies. Limiting the effects of climate
change is necessary to achieve sustainable development and
equity, including poverty eradication. Countries' past and
future contributions to the accumulation of GHGs in the
atmosphere are different, and countries also face varying
challenges and circumstances and have different capacities
to address mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation and
adaptation raise issues of equity, justice, and fairness.
Many of those most vulnerable to climate change have
contributed and contribute little to GHG emissions. Delaying
mitigation shifts burdens from the present to the future,
and insufficient adaptation responses to emerging impacts
are already eroding the basis for sustainable development.
Comprehensive strategies in response to climate change that
are consistent with sustainable development take into
account the co-benefits, adverse side-effects and risks that
may arise from both adaptation and mitigation options. {3.1,
3.5, Box 3.4}
3.2 Climate change risks reduced by mitigation and
adaptation
Without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place
today, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the
21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe,
widespread, and irreversible impacts globally (high
confidence). Mitigation involves some level of co-benefits
and of risks due to adverse side-effects, but these risks do
not involve the same possibility of severe, widespread, and
irreversible impacts as risks from climate change,
increasing the benefits from near-term mitigation efforts.
{3.2, 3.4}
Mitigation and adaptation are complementary approaches for
reducing risks of climate change impacts over different time
scales (high confidence). Mitigation, in the near-term and
through the century, can substantially reduce climate change
impacts in the latter decades of the 21st century and
beyond. Benefits from adaptation can already be realized in
addressing current risks, and can be realized in the future
for addressing emerging risks. {3.2, 4.5}
3.3 Characteristics of adaptation pathways
Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change impacts,
but there are limits to its effectiveness, especially with
greater magnitudes and rates of climate change. Taking a
longer-term perspective, in the context of sustainable
development, increases the likelihood that more immediate
adaptation actions will also enhance future options and
preparedness. {3.3}
Adaptation can contribute to the well-being of populations,
the security of assets, and the maintenance of ecosystem
goods, functions and services now and in the future.
Adaptation is place- and context-specific (high confidence).
A first step towards adaptation to future climate change is
reducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate
variability (high confidence). Integration of adaptation
into planning, including policy design, and decision making
can promote synergies with development and disaster risk
reduction. Building adaptive capacity is crucial for
effective selection and implementation of adaptation options
(high agreement, robust evidence). {3.3}
3.4 Characteristics of mitigation pathways
There are multiple mitigation pathways that are likely to
limit warming to below 2 degrees C relative to preindustrial
levels. These pathways would require substantial
emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero
emissions of CO 2 and other long-lived GHGs by the end of
the century. Implementing such reductions poses substantial
technological, economic, social, and institutional
challenges, which increase with delays in additional
mitigation and if key technologies are not available.
Limiting warming to lower or higher levels involves similar
challenges, but on different timescales. {3.4}
4. Adaptation and Mitigation
Many adaptation and mitigation options can help address
climate change, but no single option is sufficient by
itself. Effective implementation depends on policies and
cooperation at all scales, and can be enhanced through
integrated responses that link adaptation and mitigation
with other societal objectives. {4}
4.1 Common enabling factors and constraints for adaptation
and mitigation responses
Adaptation and mitigation responses are underpinned by
common enabling factors. These include effective
institutions and governance, innovation and investments in
environmentally sound technologies and infrastructure,
sustainable livelihoods, and behavioral and lifestyle
choices. {4.1}
4.2 Response options for adaptation
Adaptation options exist in all sectors, but their context
for implementation and potential to reduce climate-related
risks differs across sectors and regions. Some adaptation
responses involve significant co-benefits, synergies and
trade-offs. Increasing climate change will increase
challenges for many adaptation options. {4.2}
4.3 Response options for mitigation
Mitigation options are available in every major sector.
Mitigation can be more cost-effective if using an integrated
approach that combines measures to reduce energy use and the
GHG intensity of end-use sectors, decarbonize energy supply,
reduce net emissions and enhance carbon sinks in land-based
sectors. {4.3}
4.4 Policy approaches for adaptation and mitigation,
technology and finance
Effective adaptation and mitigation responses will depend on
policies and measures across multiple scales: international,
regional, national and sub-national. Policies across all
scales supporting technology development, diffusion and
transfer, as well as finance for responses to climate
change, can complement and enhance the effectiveness of
policies that directly promote adaptation and mitigation.
{4.4}
4.5 Trade-offs, synergies and interactions with sustainable
development
Climate change is a threat to sustainable development.
Nonetheless, there are many opportunities to link
mitigation, adaptation and the pursuit of other societal
objectives through integrated responses (high confidence).
Successful implementation relies on relevant tools, suitable
governance structures and enhanced capacity to respond
(medium confidence). {3.5, 4.5}
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African issues, with a particular focus on U.S. and
international policies. AfricaFocus Bulletin is edited by
William Minter.
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