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South Africa: Rising Outcry for Zuma to Go
AfricaFocus Bulletin
April 3, 2017 (170403)
(Reposted from sources cited below)
Editor's Note
"We call on Ministers and leaders of the ANC who care about the
future of democracy and the Constitution to speak up and call on the
President, in the best interests of the country, to step down. We
call on the parliamentary leadership of the ANC, supported by all
opposition parties, to insist that parliament be recalled
immediately to debate a motion of no-confidence, proposed by the ANC
leadership in parliament. We call on all members of Parliament to
unite and support a motion of no-confidence." - Statement by the
Nelson Mandela Foundation and the Ahmed Kathrada Foundation, March
31, 2017
The outcome is uncertain. But political observers are unanimous that
the events of last week mark a dramatic public display of lack of
confidence in South African President Jacob Zuma, including within
the highest ranks of the ruling African National Congress. First
came the death of highly respected and beloved liberation icon Ahmed
Kathrada, one of those closest to Nelson Mandela in prison and in
struggle. This was followed within days by a unilateral cabinet
reshuffle by President Zuma, including the ouster of Treasury
officials seen as the major barrier to further expansion of
corruption and patronage by Zuma and his allies.
This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains (1) the March 31 statement by the
Nelson Mandela Foundation and the Ahmed Kathrada Foundation, (2) the
short remarks by Kathrada's widow Barbara Hogan, herself a political
prisoner under apartheid, who served with distinction as Health
Minister in a decisive phase of the battle against HIV/AIDS, and (3)
an article noting the potential impact of the cabinet reshuffle on a
contested nuclear power deal with Russia, one of many points at
which corruption in the Zuma administration has intersected with
energy policy.
Several additional articles of related interest from the South
Africa press include:
"Stakes for South Africa's democracy are high as Zuma plunges the
knife," The Conversation, March 31, 2017
http://tinyurl.com/lsqtxsb
"Steven Friedman on What SA Can Do to Get Rid of Zuma," Daily Vox,
April 1, 2017
http://tinyurl.com/k88wvnl
"Reporter's Notebook: The Day South Africa woke-up," Daily Maverick,
April 1, 2017
http://tinyurl.com/md2vmvm
"Isolated Zuma faces revolt over Pravin Gordhan's axing," Sunday
Times, April 2, 2017
http://tinyurl.com/khyxjxm
"'Choose between Zuma or country' - SACP dares ANC,"
eNCA, April 2, 2017
http://tinyurl.com/lxmervs
For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on South Africa, visit
http://www.africafocus.org/country/southafrica.php
In particular, see "South Africa: State Capture & Energy Policy"
http://www.africafocus.org/docs17/saf1701.php
++++++++++++++++++++++end editor's note+++++++++++++++++
Media Statement: Honour Kathrada, defend our democracy
Nelson Mandela Foundation and Ahmed Kathrada Foundation
March 31, 2017
http://tinyurl.com/l5kl8w4
The Ahmed Kathrada Foundation and Nelson Mandela Foundation are
shocked and deeply saddened by the unilateral announcement by the
Presidency that the memorial service in honour of the late Ahmed
Mohamed Kathrada has been postponed indefinitely. This decision was
without any consultation with his wife Barbara Hogan, the Kathrada
family, and the Kathrada Foundation.
We view this conduct by the President, on the anniversary of the
humble letter written to him exactly one year ago, by our beloved
Isithwalandwe comrade Kathrada, as totally unacceptable. The
memorial service would have been the ideal opportunity for the state
to pay tribute to the memory of Ahmed Kathrada. For three quarters
of a century Ahmed Kathrada, a revolutionary, selflessly sacrificed
his life in the interests of the people. He has deservedly taken his
rightful place alongside the many giants of our democratic
revolution; a symbol who people here and abroad have come to love
and adore.
Ahmed Kathrada passed away in the early hours of Tuesday morning, 28
March, and on Wednesday at his funeral, people gathered from all
walks of life, young and old, men and women, including stalwarts in
their numbers, to name a few:
- Graca Machel and Winnie Madikizela-Mandela
- The surviving Rivonia trialists Andrew Mlangeni and Dennis
Goldberg
- The last surviving leader of the 1956 Women's March Sophie
Williams De Bruyn
- The life-long friend of Ahmed Kathrada, Laloo Chiba, who together
with others spent time with him on Robben Island
- Members of the Sisulu and Tambo families
- George Bizos
- Former speakers of the National Assembly, Frene Ginwala and Max
Sisulu
- Former Presidents Mbeki and Motlanthe
- Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa
- Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng
- Religious leaders from all faith communities
- Leaders of all sectors of business, labour and civil society.
In addition to our dismay at the indefinite postponement of the
official memorial in honour of comrade Kathrada tomorrow, we have
awoken to the news this morning that five ministers and three deputy
ministers have been removed from office. They include Minister
Pravin Gordhan and his deputy Mcebisi Jonas, who have worked
tirelessly to stabilise our economy in the face of self-induced
political instability. They and others, in our view, have been
removed for protecting the country from corruption and looting, and
speaking truth to power. They were not even shown the courtesy of
being informed of their removal and they learnt of their removal
through the media. This decision of the President, using
presidential prerogative and, as we have learnt, without the support
of the Deputy President or the Secretary General of the African
National Congress, follows on the heels of
- the decision of the Constitutional Court in the disastrous SASSA
debacle around the continuation of payment of social grants
- the SABC debacle where the recommendations of parliament were
largely ignored
- South Africa being summoned to the Hague to explain the violation
of its obligations at the International Criminal Court
- The President joining a court application by the Minister of
Finance that attempts to interfere with our financial institutions.
We are angered and outraged by the choices, and the consequences, of
the decision of the President, including retaining ministers who
have been found glaringly wanting in executing their
responsibilities, and putting narrow interests ahead of the interest
of our country and its people. Contrary to the populist narrative
that the President is furthering an agenda of radical economic
transformation, the opposite is true. The consequences of last
night's announcement have the dramatic result that our scarce
resources will be diverted to servicing debt and irrational
procurement decisions, rather than delivery of services.
The Foundations call on the leaders and ordinary members of the
African National Congress (ANC) across the country, leaders and
members of the liberation movements and progressive civil society
formations to build a new consensus that brings together all South
Africans demanding accountability and ethical governance.
We call on Ministers and leaders of the ANC who care about the
future of democracy and the Constitution to speak up and call on the
President, in the best interests of the country, to step down.
We call on the parliamentary leadership of the ANC, supported by all
opposition parties, to insist that parliament be recalled
immediately to debate a motion of no-confidence, proposed by the ANC
leadership in parliament. We call on all members of Parliament to
unite and support a motion of no-confidence.
We call on the people of South Africa in their mass formations to
take to the streets and to make their views known. We support the
rallying calls resounding across South Africa for all South African
citizens to make their voices heard and take action to safeguard the
future of all our children.:
"The people united will never be defeated!"
"Our Country is not for sale!"
Statement by Barbara Hogan at Kathrada memorial service, April 1,
2017
http://tinyurl.com/kgmehac
For video of the 7-minute statement, see http://tinyurl.com/my54zaj
"I'd like to pay a special tribute to the Kathrada family, who are
sitting here with us at the moment. We felt, both myself and the
Kathrada family, that when Mr K was buried on Wednesday it was one
of the most fitting tributes, in the style and traditions of our
mass democratic movement, that Mr K could ever have been given. And
so the enormous spirit that engulfed the country at the time of his
passing and his funeral was both calming and comforting, and gave us
inspiration about the fighting spirit of our country.
"We welcomed a commemoration service hosted by the Presidency
because that is what is befitting of a giant of our country. But let
me say that last night, when the news began to filter through, about
the dastardly deeds that were being done in dark corners, many of us
in the family began to have second doubts whether we would want a
commemoration under the auspices of a president who has clearly gone
rogue. Who has clearly defied his own party. You have a deputy
president saying, clearly and forthrightly today, that the removal
of the finance minister and his deputy was based on a dubious
intelligence report. You have the secretary-general of the ANC
saying loudly and clearly: the list of ministers who are to be
replaced did not come from the ANC, it came from another side.
"What does that mean to us? It means that the president is not
applying his mind in making a decision about one of the most
critical issues in our country, and that is a decision about a team
of people who are going to lead our country. Surely that is an
indictment on the president, when his own party is rejecting him.
His own party rejects what he has done. If this is not a defining
moment in our country, nothing will ever be a defining moment.
"Looking to citizens of our country, I think all of us are utterly
dismayed. We live in this country, we love this country and we have
hopes. The majority of people live desperate lives of poverty and
marginalisation. That a president can think to withdraw a finance
minister and his deputy from an incredibly important international
roadshow, to think that he thinks he could just do that and there is
no consequences for the poor, shows what an inept president we have.
"For the ordinary citizens of this country, it is time for your
voices to be heard. This is not a time for petty differences amongst
us to divide us. Our sworn enemies - and we all have our little
fights in the progressive movement - can no longer be enemies. We
have to form a broad, mass democratic alliance here to take on the
forces of evil, and the rogues, and the thieves who want to steal
our country from us. We need to say to people that if there are ANC
councillors in their ward, they need to call that councillor and ask
them what they are doing. You can no longer say, 'Oh, that's another
sphere of government.' You represent the ANC, you've got to be
accountable. We need to say to people, 'call on your ANC MPLs. Ask
them what they're doing.' And your MPs as well. Call your MPs. When
they were sworn in as MPs and MPLs, they swore an oath to the
Constitution.
"Party loyalty is important, but when we are in as grave a situation
as we are in today, the Constitution that we love and fought for,
must take precedence over any lingering notion that party loyalty is
above anything. I do not say this lightly. As Kathy said in his
letter to the president, he remained silent even though there were
many things that worried him. 'But,' he said, 'there is a moment in
which you have to break the silence.' And this is the moment in
which ANC MPs sitting in Parliament need to look into themselves and
ask, 'what is the constitutional duty that is imposed upon us in
terms of this Constitution?'
"There are two clauses around the Presidency in this Constitution
which deal with a president that is not behaving presidentially. The
Constitution provides a basis for remedying that fact. This is not
silly issues of factional battles in the ANC, these are greater and
grander projects about the accountability of our leadership to the
rank-and-file of our people. And so I call on everyone here not to
remain silent, not to sit on the fence and not to remain looking
after your own narrow, self-interest. The country needs to be taken
back. A country united is never divided. And this country is not for
sale. Thank you."
Zuma's cabinet reshuffle opens the door for nuclear deal in South
Africa
March 31, 2017
Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of Johannesburg
http://tinyurl.com/k5veabk
South Africa has just witnessed a game changing cabinet reshuffle
with the firing of five ministers and several deputy ministers. This
included the Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and his second-incharge
Mcebisi Jonas.
The three ministries with the most critical impact on the energy
sector have all been affected, significantly increasing the chances
of the country opting for a highly controversial nuclear energy
programme.
In the energy portfolio, former minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson has
been replaced by cabinet newcomer Nkhensani Kubayi. The minister's
removal might have been driven by her recent passivity around the
nuclear build. The second ministry affected is Public Enterprises,
which supervises the state electricity utility Eskom, and has a new
deputy minister.
But the most crucial change is in the National Treasury which is now
in the hands of two perceived Zuma loyalists. Malusi Gigaba, former
home affairs minister, is the new finance minister and Sifiso
Buthelezi his deputy.
Former finance minister Gordhan had been under particularly severe
attack from Zuma supporters for his reluctance to endorse excessive
expenditure demands. He was viewed as a stumbling block by those
that stood to benefit from mega-projects. The biggest of these is
the R1 trillion nuclear new build.
The cabinet reshuffle can therefore be viewed as a desperate bid by
the Zuma faction, and associated beneficiaries such as the Gupta
family, to drive the pro-nuclear agenda. The expectation is that the
nuclear procurement plan will now receive the National Treasury's
blessing and will be given the go-ahead. This is despite the
dangerous financial burden it would impose on the country, and the
massive resultant debt repayment obligations.
Nuclear versus renewable debate
When the plan to develop a 9.6 GW nuclear production capability was
first mooted in 2011, it didn't seem to be a particularly bad idea.
But the scheme rapidly became controversial. The Russian nuclear
industry with businesses linked to a faction within the ANC started
to exert excessive influence on key people in government, and Zuma
in particular, to force through the nuclear build. The faction was
most visibly represented by "tenderpreneurs" – business people who
enrich themselves through government tenders, often dubiously.
The pro-nuclear lobby soon began to attack on a second front,
directing their energies at South Africa's burgeoning renewable
energy industry. The country could rightfully boast that its
renewable energy programme, started in 2012, was hugely successful.
Driven by the Department of Energy, it had seen multiple mediumscale
wind and solar energy farms springing up all around South
Africa.
These early successes led to academic studies as well as the
country's 2016 draft Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity
recognising the renewable energy potential. They concluded that the
country could be energy self-sufficient without nuclear for at least
the next 20 years.
But in a surprise move last year Eskom announced that it would no
longer sign electricity purchase agreements with independent power
producers. This threatened to squash nascent renewable enterprises,
which rely on Eskom for their power distribution.
The peculiar objection raised was that the electricity distributor
couldn't afford the long-term purchase of renewable energy. These
concerns were voiced by former Eskom CEO, Brian Molefe, who
subsequently resigned after compromising allegations were made
against him, as well as his successor, Matshela Koko.
Their argument appeared to be based on the comparatively high feedin
tariffs of R2.60/kWh from the earliest round of solar power
station contracts. They chose not to consider that the renewable
energy plants in planning or under construction would be delivering
power to Eskom at approximately R0.78/kWh. This is cheaper than
current electricity production from coal. It's also much cheaper
than the projected cost of nuclear energy once loan repayments and
decommissioning costs are factored in.
A desperate bid
South Africans should expect a massive public relations campaign
claiming that the massive investment in nuclear will repay itself in
the long term. Another fallacious key narrative that's likely to be
pushed very hard is that there are "base load" requirements that
other energy sources cannot address.
It's also now more likely that the final version of the 2016 energy
plan, due at the end of March, will be modified to propose an
immediate need for nuclear.
The nuclear versus renewable debate has become visibly entangled in
the country's political machinations. This means that it's highly
improbable that the majority of South Africans would ever support
the nuclear option. The contest for control of the government is
already leading to street protests and the threatened impeachment of
the president.
There's no doubt that attempts to build nuclear plants will be
challenged by all sectors of society.
Taking a longer term view, it's not to be expected that the
construction projects, which typically take a decade or even longer
to come to fruition, will see completion. The projects may well have
to be cancelled, as happened in Austria in 1978.
The new more malleable finance minister may also find it hard to
effect an expensive undertaking particularly given the massive
demands for funds from other sectors such as education and social
welfare. The expected rating downgrade could also lead to vastly
increased borrowing costs.
South Africa's energy sector is perhaps at its most fluid and
unpredictable stage it's ever been in.
AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with a
particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
Bulletin is edited by William Minter.
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