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Ethiopia: Not Too Late to Step Back from War?
AfricaFocus Bulletin
November 18, 2020 (2020-11-18)
(Reposted from sources cited below)
Editor's Note
“We, the undersigned citizens of countries of the Horn of Africa,
condemn in the strongest possible terms the outbreak and escalation
of open warfare in Ethiopia. We are saddened by the attendant
losses of life, property, infrastructure and opportunities. We
deplore in equally strong terms further stoking of the conflict. …
This conflict will not have winners; the only winners in war are
those who are wise and courageous enough to avoid it.”
The sentiments of this petition (included below), initially signed by 45 citizens of the region, are widely shared by informed commentators and concerned activists in Africa and around the world. But how to analyze the causes, and what to do, are complicated and disputed.
The three main protagonists in the war are the federal Ethiopian
government, headed by Abiy Ahmed; the Tigray regional government,
headed by Debretsion Gebremichael; and the Eritrean government,
headed by Isaias Afwerki. Many passionate supporters and passionate
opponents of each government are engaged in fiery debates on social
media. But these are difficult to follow for those who are not
insiders, and, as these petitioners note, may serve to stoke the
war.
The basic narrative is clear, but there are a lot of uncertainties
about many details. This issue of AfricaFocus does not
provide answers, nor are all the sources cited agreed on further
analysis. But hopefully the sources cited can provide those of us,
like your editor, who do not know the region in depth, with some
understanding.
For basic news AfricaFocus recommends https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cr2pnx1173dt/tigray-crisis,
https://www.aljazeera.com/search/Tigray, https://allafrica.com/ethiopia/, and https://addisstandard.com/.
The first two are generally reliable, in my opinion. The second two
provide much additional information, but the reader should note
that they each include a variety of articles reflecting different
sources, including pro-government outlets as well as critics.
More extensive updates and guides to current sources of information are available at https://www.eepa.be/?p=4251 in the News Highlights Extra on the Tigray conflict from the Europe External Programme with Africa.
The two articles included in full in this AfricaFocus, from the
Mail & Guardian's The Continent, provide the basic narrative, up to
November 7. They were written by two Ethiopian analysts in the
diaspora, Zecharias Zelalem and Yohannes Woldemariam.
For a deeper analysis of the multiple players involved, two sources of particular interest by informed external observers are (1) a half-hour interview with long-term solidarity activist and writer Dan Connell on an Eritrean on-line TV network (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wiEkLrmX1Rk) – Asena TV (11/16/2020) and (2) an analysis by Bronwyn Bruton of the Atlantic Council (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/africasource/calls-for-negotiation-driving-ethiopia-deeper-into-war/) (11/13/2020).
Note: the interview with Dan Connell is in English, but you have to
forward a few minutes to get to the beginning.
Both made it clear that calls for negotiation and deescalation,
however justified, are unlikely to be heeded because of the lack of
a credible mediator or international coalition that can put
pressure on all three of the protagonists. In the absence of that,
even high-priority steps such as ensuring a humanitarian corridor
for delivery of relief supplies to civilians will be
extraordinarily difficult.
The UNCHR, however, is urgently raising funds for the new surge of refugees into Sudan. One can donate to this appeal here: https://donate.unhcr.org/int/ethiopia-emergency/~my-donation
Finally, this AfricaFocus contains other links of interest and,
highly important for even a basic understanding of what is
happening, two maps (one of Ethiopia and its neighbors, and the
other of the regions making up the Ethiopian federal state.
For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on Ethiopia, visit http://www.africafocus.org/country/ethiopia.php
++++++++++++++++++++++end editor's note+++++++++++++++++
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Urgent Call and Appeal for Peace in Ethiopia from Citizens of the Horn of Africa
November 14, 2020
http://www.warscapes.com/blog/ethiopia-urgent-call-and-appeal-peace
We, the undersigned citizens of countries of the Horn of Africa,
condemn in the strongest possible terms the outbreak and escalation
of open warfare in Ethiopia. We are saddened by the attendant
losses of life, property, infrastructure and opportunities. We
deplore in equally strong terms further stoking of the conflict.
Wars neither have predetermined end dates nor are they guaranteed
to stay within fixed territorial boundaries. Unless immediately
halted, the ongoing Ethiopian civil war has all the trappings of a
drawn-out conflict with adverse effects on the rest of the Horn of
Africa region and the African continent at large. This conflict
will not have winners; the only winners in war are those who are
wise and courageous enough to avoid it.
At a time when we, as citizens of the region, were looking forward
to the expansion and consolidation of the changes that Prime
Minister Abiy’s rise to power ushered, this conflict dashes our
hopes for the region and puts in direct, grave danger the lives and
livelihoods of many Ethiopians. Given the significance of Ethiopia
in the region and continent, and the strong ties that bind the
countries of the region to each other, Ethiopia’s peace and
stability becomes of paramount concern to the countries and
citizens of the region. For this reason:
We call on all the concerned Ethiopian actors to immediately cease
fire and deescalate the situation.
We call on the Eritrean government to desist from any rhetoric or
actions that may contribute to further inflame the conflict.
We call on Ethiopia’s other neighbors (Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya,
Somalia/Somaliland and Djibouti) to exert their utmost diplomatic,
political, and other resources to help the warring Ethiopian sides
defuse the conflict and help attend to the consequent humanitarian
needs.
We appeal to IGAD, the AU and the UN to impress upon the two
parties the need for a peaceful resolution and to use their good
offices to help them achieve it.
We appeal to Archbishop Desmond Tutu, H.E. Thabo Mbeki, H.E. Ellen
Johnson Sirleaf, H.E. Olusegun Obasanjo, H.E. Lakhdar Brahimi, H.E.
Graça Machel and other notable African leaders and elders to
leverage their considerable leadership toward the resolution of the
ongoing tragic conflict.
We appeal to all Ethiopians, citizens of the Horn of Africa and all
Africans and peace-loving people of the world to say “no to war” in
unison and work for peace in the volatile region.
We call on all conventional and social media outlets, activists
from Ethiopia and the region, and analysts to be mindful of
incendiary tone and substance in their programming, to refrain from
further inflaming the situation, and to actively promote the
peaceful resolution of this conflict and its root causes.
[Initial signatories include 45 names. The link also provides a link to sign the petition.]
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Ethiopia and Its Neighbors
Regions of Ethiopia
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Abiy Ahmed won a Nobel peace prize. Now Ethiopia is on the brink of civil war
Ethiopia’s central government has launched a major military operation – including airstrikes – against one of its own regional states
Zecharias Zelalem
The Continent Issue 28. November 7 2020, downloaded from https://mg.co.za/thecontinent/
For a longer article by Zacarias Zelalem, from November 9, 2020, see “Ethiopia has reached a tipping point” at https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7vbzg/ethiopia-has-reached-a-tipping-point
[Zecharias Zelalem is an Ethiopian journalist with the Addis Standard and focuses on
Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa as a whole.]
At about 2am on Wednesday morning [November 4], Ethiopian Prime
Minister Abiy Ahmed took to his Facebook page to make a grave
announcement. “The Ethiopian Defense Forces, run by a command
post, have been tasked with saving the country,” he said. The
regional government of Tigray, a northern province, was guilty of
“crossing a red line”, he said, and Ethiopian troops had been
ordered to commence a “military confrontation”.
“I call on Ethiopians to remain calm, be on high alert and back
the military effort,” Abiy wrote. Several commentators described
this as tantamount to a declaration of war against one of
Ethiopia’s own regional states.
About an hour later – still in the early hours of the morning –
Abiy appeared on state television. He said the Tigray People’s
Liberation Front (TPLF) – the party that governs the Tigray region
– was guilty of “treason”. According to Abiy, Tigray regional
security forces had assaulted Ethiopian military bases in the
towns of Mekelle and Dansha, killing and injuring soldiers based
there.
The Ethiopian army’s Northern Command, one of four regional
commands, is based in Mekelle, the Tigrayan regional capital which
is more than 700km north of the country’s capital, Addis Ababa.
Tigray’s regional government has announced the closure of its
airspace, and claimed that the Northern Command will “stand with
the Tigray people and the regional government”.
Tigray is home to about six million of Ethiopia’s population of
110-million people, and is located in the north-east of the
country, along the border with Eritrea.
On Friday, Abiy told reporters that airstrikes had been launched
against targets in and around Mekelle in what he described as
“the first round of operations”. He said the airstrikes destroyed
rockets and other heavy weapons. There was no mention of
casualties.
A dramatic escalation
Tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa and
Tigray’s regional government have been running high for some
time, and relations had soured considerably in recent months.
Although this escalation remains shocking, analysts have warned
for months that conflict was looming.
Efforts by the Mail & Guardian to contact residents in Tigray were
fruitless, because internet and phone lines were not functioning.
Internet tracking organisation Netblocks revealed that there was
a considerable drop in Ethiopia’s internet usage that began about
an hour before the prime minister’s announcement. As such, Abiy’s
claims remain difficult to authenticate, and the region is
virtually cut off from the outside world.
BBC journalist Desta Gebremedhin, from the BBC’s Tigrigna language
desk, was able to make contact with a relative in Mekelle on
Wednesday. “My cousin in Mekelle could hear the raging gun
battles,” he said. This indicates that the fighting is within the
vicinity of a major urban centre.
Despite the prime minister’s claims that his soldiers were
ambushed and pushed into the war, preparations for the eventual
escalation were made days in advance. Large-scale movements of
Ethiopian troops heading northwards were reported in the days
before. Meanwhile, last Sunday, Tigray regional president
Debretsion Gebremichael announced that his forces were prepared
for conflict, stating that “if war is imminent, we are prepared
not just to resist but to win”.
A year ago, few could have predicted these developments when the
prime minister of Ethiopia posed for cameras in Oslo at the award
ceremony after receiving the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. Hailed for
bringing two decades of military hostility with neighbouring
Eritrea to an end, the peace deal in 2018 sparked wild
celebrations in both countries and was a rare feel-good story
from the often conflict-ridden region.
Yet already the seeds of conflict with Tigray were being sown, as
Abiy moved to consolidate his authority – in the process
alienating the TPLF, which had dominated political life in
Ethiopia for decades.
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Ethiopia crosses the red line
Yohannes Woldemariam
The Continent Issue 28. November 7 2020, downloaded from https://mg.co.za/thecontinent/
[Yohannes Woldemariam teaches international relations and follows
the Horn of Africa closely. This analysis is published in partnership with Democracy in Africa.]
On 3 November, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared war
on the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), launching a
military offensive in response to a series of attacks and
incidents that he claims reveal his former allies to be
“traitors”. This dramatic escalation of tensions between the
Tigray region and the federal government represents a major
gamble on Abiy’s part that could result in the collapse of
Ethiopia itself. If the country’s slide towards civil war is not
halted immediately, the consequences for Ethiopian people and the
wider region will be disastrous.
But how did we get here?
Historically, both the TPLF and Abiy were part of the Ethiopian
People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) government.
However, since Abiy came to power in 2018, the relationship with
the TPLF has deteriorated, with Tigrayan leaders increasingly
relegated to play a backseat role in a “coalition” that they had
previously dominated. The relationship finally broke down when
Abiy announced plans to dissolve the EPRDF and replace it with
his own Prosperity Party, a new political vehicle that the TPLF
refused to support.
Ever since, Abiy has sought to contain the influence of the TPLF
to the Tigray region, while TPLF leaders have questioned his
authority to rule over them, leading to a series of spats and
mutual accusations and recriminations. These tensions had been
simmering for some time, but reached boiling point following
Abiy’s decision to postpone scheduled general elections on the
basis of the coronavirus pandemic. Determined to embarrass the
prime minister and simultaneously assert their own authority,
TPLF leaders went ahead with their own election in Tigray,
directly flouting Abiy’s objections.
The growing conflict between the prime minister and the TPLF is
particularly explosive for three main reasons. First, Ethiopia is
plagued by intractable ethnic politics, and Abiy already faces an
uphill battle to retain political stability amid growing political
violence. Second, the government lacks the capacity to win a
decisive victory, as the TPLF has considerable military capacity
and is used to protracted armed struggles – having come of age
fighting against the Derg government as a guerilla group in the
late 1980s. Third, Ethiopia’s constitution recognises the right of
ethnic communities to campaign for political autonomy, and
secession is a constant topic of conversation in areas such as
Tigray, the Southern and Somali regions and Oromia.
Against this backdrop there is a real chance that conflict between
the federal government and the TPLF will be long and drawn out,
and will suck in other regions and movements – quickly becoming a
situation over which Abiy has little control. Already, reports
suggest that an attempt to capture TPLF leaders in Mekelle via a
commando operation have proved unsuccessful.
This is certainly the prediction of Seyoum Mesfin, a veteran TPLF
member and Ethiopia’s foreign minister from 1991 to 2010, who
says that if civil war comes Ethiopia will be like Syria, Yemen or
Libya – a failed state in which foreign players sponsor proxy
armies to further their own interests. The potential foreign
influence currently being debated by Ethiopians on social media
is that of Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea and possibly Egypt over the
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute. But what Seyoum is
alluding to is a far more extensive intervention involving actors
from the Gulf States as well as non state actors.
In particular, the close relationship between Abiy and Eritrean
dictator Isaias Afwerki has triggered numerous rumors, the truth
of which is hard to pin down.
It does seem, however, that both Isaias and Abiy feel that they
have scores to settle with the TPLF. While Abiy sees the group as
his main barrier to asserting control over Ethiopia, Isaias blames
the TPLF for past conflicts, standing in the way of his regional
ambitions and refusing to demarcate the Eritrean border.
The TPLF itself is certainly concerned about the close
relationship between the two men, accusing Abiy of treason for
his “conspiracy” with Isaias, and such suspicions are fanning the
flames of conflict.
So how will we know if things are starting to fall apart?
Conflict between the TPLF and the federal government is likely to
be prolonged under any circumstances, but is most likely to
descend into a fully fledged civil war if the military fragments.
Much therefore depends on whether Abiy retains full control over
the Ethiopian Defense Forces, which includes Tigreans within its
ranks. The growing political polarisation suggests that
maintaining a cohesive national army will be particularly
challenging.
Abiy has appointed a new general to take control of the Northern
Command – historically one of the four military divisions in
Ethiopia with responsibility for Tigray and the Eritrean border –
but the TPLF has blocked his path. Whether the military remains
united under these circumstances will heavily shape the course of
the conflict. The fragmentation of the army, or defection of
troops to Tigray, would dramatically weaken Abiy. In turn, this
would encourage other groups such as the Oromo Liberation Front
(OLF) to step up their efforts, accelerating the country’s
disintegration.
Such a development would push Ethiopia into a full civil war that
could destabilise the entire region, creating millions of
refugees and undermining economic trade and growth. Preventing
this is imperative – but if this is to be done concerted
international and domestic action needs to be taken now, before
there are further clashes and before the state comes apart at the
seams.
*******************************************************************
Other recent links of interest from generally reliable sources
Note dates (in URL or in parentheses) because the situation is changing rapidly.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54932333 (11/17/2020, by Alex De Waal)
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2020/11/17/military-confrontation-war-ethiopia-trump-and-geopolitics-dams-gerd/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54942546 – BBC summary (11/15/2020)
https://africanarguments.org/2020/11/13/tigray-how-ethiopia-reached-this-crisis-point-and-how-it-could-get-out/ - by Nick Wescott of the Royal African Society in London)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/11/opinion/ethiopia-tigray-abiy-ahmed.html (by Tsedale Lemma, editor in chief of the Addis Standard).
https://allafrica.com/stories/202011120045.html (particularly the article by Gabriel Negatu, former former director general for eastern Africa at the African Development Bank)
https://cpj.org/2020/11/ethiopian-journalist-bekalu-alamrew-arrested-accused-of-disseminating-false-news/ (11/10/2020)
https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2020/11/10/ethiopia-tigray-mekelle-conflict-army-TPLF
https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/ethiopias-clash-tigray-getting-ceasefire-and-national-dialogue (11/05/2020)
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