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Burundi: Crisis Group Report
Burundi: Crisis Group Report
Date distributed (ymd): 980619
Document reposted by APIC
+++++++++++++++++++++Document Profile+++++++++++++++++++++
Region: Central Africa
Issue Areas: +political/rights+ +security/peace+
Summary Contents:
This posting contains the executive summary of a report from the International
Crisis Group entitled "Burundi under Siege," published on April
28, 1998. A previous posting contains additional backbround on the renewed
peace talks that began in Arusha on June 15.
+++++++++++++++++end profile++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
International Crisis Group
Brussels Office
26 Rue des Minimes, 1er etage
B-1000 Bruxelles, Belgium
Tel: +32-2-502 90 38
Fax: +32-2-502 50 38
Email: intcrisis@compuserve.com
Washington Office
Suite 412, 1755 Massachusetts Ave. NW
Washington DC 20036
United States
Tel: +1-202-986-9750
Fax: +1-202-986-9751
E-mail: icg@his.com
The full text of this report, as well as additional information on the
International Crisis Group, is available at http://www.intl-crisis-group.org.
Burundi Under Siege
28 April, 1998
Lift the sanctions; re-launch the peace process
Executive Summary
Burundi has spent the most part of the past five years embroiled in
a vicious civil war that has so far claimed more than 200,000 lives and
triggered massive movements of refugees and displaced persons and which
continues to add to instability throughout the Great Lakes region. Since
July 1996, the country has been largely cut off from the outside world,
following the decision by neighbouring countries in the region to impose
harsh economic sanctions in response to the overthrow of Burundi's coalition
government by the Tutsi-dominated military.
The swift response of regional leaders to the Burundi coup in July 1996
and their show of resolve to force the military government, led by Major
Pierre Buyoya, to restore multiparty democracy and enter into all-party
talks on the future of the country is undeniably impressive. Meeting within
five days of the military's seizure of power, the leaders of Tanzania,
Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Zaire and Ethiopia agreed to impose uniform sanctions
on Burundi, issued a list of specific demands that the Burundian government
would have to meet for the sanctions to be lifted and gave their full backing
to former Tanzanian president Julius Nyerere's efforts to mediate a settlement
to the crisis.
The wider international community, including the United States and key
European states, greeted the efforts of regional leaders to impose a solution
on Burundi through a combination of economic pressure and negotiations
with barely disguised relief. Western governments, still haunted by their
failure to do more to prevent the Rwanda genocide of 1994 in which almost
a million people lost their lives, lent strong political and financial
support to the regional leaders and, specifically, to former president
Nyerere as the regional peace-broker. At the time, the speed and unity
of the regional response to events in the Burundian capital, Bujumbura,
seemed to auger well for the future. It became common to hear US and European
politicians arguing that the determination of leaders in the Great Lakes
region to impose a peace process on Burundi was evidence that Africans
were increasingly taking on responsibility for solving their own problems.
20 months on, the situation remains far from resolved. While the swift
response of regional leaders to the coup in Burundi undoubtedly had an
immediate and positive impact on the political situation inside Burundi
- leading within weeks to a lifting of the ban on political parties and
the restoration of the country's Parliament - the main objectives of regional
and international policy have yet to be achieved. Burundi's military government
remains in place; violence continues, albeit at a lower rate than before
the coup; and while there is evidence of a limited rapprochement between
key parties within Burundi, including between the Government and the Parliament,
genuine peace talks have yet to begin. Meanwhile, Nyerere's regional peace
process remains at a standstill against a backdrop of mutual recriminations
and allegations that the mediator's neutrality has been compromised by
his support for punitive sanctions on Burundi. The embargo, originally
intended as a regional policy, has evolved into a personal feud between
the former Tanzanian president and the president of Uganda on the one hand
and Buyoya on the other. As hopes of a breakthrough fade, Burundi's neighbours
have become increasingly divided on what measures to take to break the
deadlock.
The present report, compiled by an ICG field analyst based in Bujumbura,
provides an assessment of the current situation in Burundi and the region.
In particular it examines the key changes during the 20 months since the
1996 coup. It weighs up the performance of the Buyoya military government
in restoring security and opening up dialogue between Burundi's factions
and looks in detail at the impact of the economic embargo on the peace
process, both within the country and in the region.
The report catalogues a number of serious obstacles that reduce the
Burundi government's room for manoeuvre and limit the chances of progress
towards productive all-party negotiations on the country's future. These
include:
- a radicalisation of some elements of the army and Tutsi community who
fear pressure from the region may force the government into making concessions
that compromise the security of the Tutsi minority;
- fragmentation of the government's political base, with deep divisions
within the Tutsi-dominated UPRONA party;
- splits in the opposition, within the Hutu-dominated FRODEBU party and
between the political opposition parties and armed elements;
- the threat of an active rebellion, and
- a crisis of confidence in the country's judicial system, making it
impossible for those guilty of past atrocities to be tried and the culture
of impunity to be tackled.
The report criticises the refusal of regional leaders not to consider
changing tack in the face of mounting evidence that their emphasis on economic
sanctions as a means of forcing Burundi's parties into an open, regionally-brokered
peace process has failed to deliver the desired results. As the report
points out, the sanctions policy has:
- not removed the president from power;
- made Burundi's poor poorer - by inflicting widespread human suffering
and economic squalor on the most vulnerable and deprived sections of Burundian
society; and made the rich richer - by creating opportunities for extortion
rackets, corruption and highly-profitable black market economic activities;
- failed to exert significant economic hardship on members and supporters
of the government and the military, who can by and large afford inflated
prices;
- not strangled the Burundian economy which still functions, albeit unreliably,
by virtue of illegal smuggling, corruption and a thriving black market;
- narrowed Buyoya's political base, marginalising moderates and radicalising
certain elements within the army and the minority Tutsi community by adding
to their sense of persecution and vulnerability;
- undermined the regional peace process by seriously damaging the relationship
between Burundi and the other countries of the region
- made compromise less not more likely by forcing the Burundi government
to choose between caving into regional demands, and therefore losing all
face, or standing firm and handling the crisis internally (a winner/loser
scenario); and
- shifted the focus of peace-making efforts away from the content of
negotiations and instead onto the nature of the negotiating process - tying
the lifting of the embargo to the start of a regionally-led external peace
process.
Recommendations:
The priority for regional leaders and the wider international community
must be to help re-launch negotiations between Burundi's opposing factions
and to initiate a genuine transition process. To achieve this objective,
ICG believes that the economic blockade imposed on Burundi by countries
of the region following the 1996 coup must be lifted. At the same time,
a number of steps should be taken to create conditions necessary for constructive
dialogue. None of the parties to the conflict should be left with any excuse
to justify boycotting the talks. Arguments about a regional versus a national
approach to dialogue should be put aside once and for all so that attention
can shift to the actual agenda to be discussed. In the event the peace
process collapses again, the international community will need to consider
further measures, including freezing of the overseas assets and restricting
travel for the governing elite.
Specifically, the report carries the following recommendations:
1. Support the establishment of a transition government
In June 1998, the term of the National Assembly expires. In July 1999,
the three year transition period declared by Buyoya following the July
1996 coup, comes to an end. The international community should therefore
be ready to support the establishment of a transition government tasked
with overseeing and contributing to the process of internal dialogue and
with taking part in the external, regional peace process.
2. Support the internal process of dialogue within Burundi
An internal dialogue between all the parties to Burundi's conflict is
an essential component of the wider peace process. Dialogue needs to be
strengthened, broadened and deepened. It should be underpinned by measures
designed to build the confidence of all factions of society in the peace
process. This will take time and require an imaginative approach. Initiatives
that might be considered include exchanges between representatives of Burundian
society and those of other societies affected by conflict; financing seminars
that bring together oppositing groups to explore options for peaceful co-habitation;
support for reconciliation projects; the dispatch of multi-ethnic delegations
to the countryside to explain the process to local communities and seek
their views.
3. Lift the sanctions
The negative effects of the economic blockade have come to outweigh
any positive effects it may have had. Continuing further with the same
policy risks hindering the process of internal dialogue, fuelling extremist
elements in Burundi society and contributing to a dangerous destabilisation
of the situation.
4. Re-launch the peace process
- A regional summit should be convened at Arusha as soon as possible:
the regional leaders will not agree to lift the economic blockade until
negotiations begin officially in Arusha.
- Sub-committees should be created to focus on specific issues to be
included in the negotiation process. Each sub-committee should be presided
by co-mediators. The set of issues agreed during preliminary talks in Rome
should be used as the basis on which to structure the agenda. The co-mediators
should adhere strictly to the principle of neutrality, they should not
actively advocate one solution or another and should seek to build up the
trust of all participants. The co-mediators should be Africans but not
drawn from the countries of the region.
- Once negotiations have begun, the venue should be moved away from Tanzania,
which is no longer seen as neutral territory by all the potential participants.
Recent conferences hosted by UNESCO in Paris and by Synergies Africa in
Fribourg have shown that the parties are ready to meet outside of Arusha.
5. Provide international assistance to strengthen the judicial system
5. The issue of impunity needs to be addressed as a matter of urgency.
The constant recall of past killings and exchanges of accusations of atrocities
is an obstacle to reconciliation and dialogue. In the absence of a functioning
International Criminal Court or an Ad Hoc War Crimes Tribunal for Burundi,
consideration should be given to the establishment of a Truth Commission
based on the South African model or a Research Commission tasked with investigating
all massacres since independence. In addition, the international community
should be ready to send both financial and technical assistance to help
improve the functioning and strengthen the independence of the judiciary.
In the short-term, the emphasis should be on sending judicial observers
and trainers to help demonstrate the separation of judicial and executive
powers. In the longer-term, reform the recruitment and education of judges
and lawyers of both communities will be necessary to help re-balance the
judiciary and build public trust in the system.
6. Review development assistance programs
Development assistance aid has an important role to play in helping
to rebuild Burundi, restart economic activity and lay the basis of future,
stable development. To avoid the risk that funding might be diverted into
military or security force budgets, donors should seek to distribute aid
at a local level, through, for example selective, direct investment in
micro agricultural projects, infrastructural projects in the more stable
provinces, small enterprises, diversification of production, employment
creation programs, civil society organisations and independent media projects.
7. Facilitate the repatriation of Burundian refugees in Tanzania
Repatriation of Burundian refugees currently sheltering in Tanzania
would remove an important source of tension in the relationship between
Burundi and Tanzania. A repatriation program has been agreed already by
the two countries and the UNHCR. This should be implemented as soon as
practicable.
Bujumbura, Burundi
28 April 1998
This material is being reposted for wider distribution by the Africa
Policy Information Center (APIC), the educational affiliate of the Washington
Office on Africa. APIC's primary objective is to widen the policy debate
in the United States around African issues and the U.S. role in Africa,
by concentrating on providing accessible policy-relevant information and
analysis usable by a wide range of groups individuals.
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